Microsoft's stocks rallied this past week on accelerating AI growth, but the devil is always in the details.

Over the past month, Microsoft's shares have surged almost 30% following its quarterly filings, which beat Wall Street estimates by a significant margin. Microsoft proved that its AI business is accelerating in growth, and that cash flows remain healthy despite the firm's extensive capital expenditure on new data centers. However, new information suggests that there's still an enormous caveat to this news.

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Analysis from Bloomberg has poured cold water over Microsoft's AI earnings potential. Disclosures from Microsoft suggest that OpenAI accounts for around 70% of Microsoft's total AI-related income, based on projected growth and previous disclosures that relate to revenue derived from OpenAI.

Microsoft reported that Copilot has millions of paid seats in Microsoft 365, and is being gradually adopted by a wide variety of governmental, public, and private sector businesses. But when you tally it against previous disclosures, it shows that GPU and infrastructure consumption specifically from OpenAI still drives between 65 to 70% of Microsoft's total AI business. Training platforms like ChatGPT and simply serving it to customers remains the cornerstone of Microsoft's AI business. That's potentially problematic and comes with a huge amount of risk.

On the gaming side, Call of Duty having an off year was enough to drive Xbox's total revenue down by 11%, leading to masses of layoffs. OpenAI, by comparison, is estimated to be losing anywhere between 10 and 20 billion dollars per year, on a comparatively modest $2-5 billion in revenue. OpenAI has a mountain of investors keeping it afloat right now, and Microsoft itself remains one of OpenAI's biggest backers, investing to the tune of billions in cash, infra, compute credits, and other instruments. On the face of it, Microsoft's AI bookings simply represent OpenAI's compute bill packaged as revenue.

It's not unheard of in business. Spotify ran losses for years until eventually becoming profitable (to the tune of billions, I might add). The idea is that you burn through debt, scale rapidly, change user behavior, and create new markets. Then, you lock people in and make them dependent, and start monetizing. Microsoft and OpenAI's other creditors are betting that one day, ChatGPT will become the default — an inescapable cornerstone of computing for billions of people.

But what if that doesn't happen?

What if people end up choosing Claude or Gemini over ChatGPT? What if regulatory scrutiny or public opinion sours ever further? What if elections are won on the promise of blocking new data centers, rather than enabling them?

The disclosures suggest that Microsoft's AI growth is inorganic and revolves almost entirely around training ChatGPT's models. If OpenAI imploded or decelerated, Microsoft would be on the hook for billions in sunk cost and enormous amounts of excess data center capacity.

There's no suggestion of a deceleration, quite the opposite — which is why the stock price has surged. But there's also little reason to believe that this entire segment is even vaguely organic.

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Microsoft is already trying to diversify by training its own "more efficient" MAI models for consumer applications while boosting external enterprise adoption. It's started to devote more attention to its legacy consumer businesses too, namely Xbox and Windows, as neglect therein becomes untenable. But none of this will save Microsoft or its shareholders if the so-called "AI bubble" well and truly does pop.

It'll be interesting to watch how CEO Satya Nadella navigates Microsoft through this somewhat unprecedented era.

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